AGENT CRISIS: Number of real estate agents DIVE in last three months

PHOTO: NZ Celebrity real estate agents. FILE

According to STUFF the number of active real estate agents fell by 235 between March and June, according to figures from the Real Estate Authority (REA).

Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said agent numbers had historically responded quickly to changes in market conditions, and with sale volumes and prices tumbling he expected more to leave the sector over the next 12 to 18 months.

Homes.co.nz moves to stop real estate agents reposting adverts to renew listing date

Real Estate Authority figures released under the Official Information Act (OIA) stated at the end of March there were 17,101 active agents.

Three months later there were only 16,866 – a figure that was still well above pre-pandemic levels, when there were just over 15,000.

DO HAVE A STORY YOU WOULD LIKE TO SHARE?

“It’s interesting to note that active agent numbers in July are lower than earlier in the year, which suggests the drop in sales is already seeing some people leave the industry,” Kiernan said.

He said the last time there had been a similar situation with a big increase in agent numbers heading into a downturn was probably in the mid-2000s – just before the global financial crisis (GFC) hit.

Real estate agents JUST ‘hanging in there’: BIG exodus expected

“Unfortunately we don’t have data on the number of agents back then to compare,” he said.

**SUPPLIED:** **Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan says people generally flock into real estate during hot markets, and leave during downturns.**

“However, it means that the relatively big increase in agent numbers during 2020 and 2021 is unsustainable, and there need to be further declines in agent numbers.”

Bec Whitley became a real estate agent about a year ago and was not surprised people were dropping out of the industry. She said reduction in sales was probably the driver.

“On the North Shore, where I am based, at the moment we are seeing approximately 200 to 230 properties selling per month, usually we would be seeing around 450,” she said.

**ABIGAIL DOUGHERTY/STUFF:** **Bec Whitley works at Harcourts, and sold her first home during the Auckland lockdown.**

“When I first started it was super hot, non-stop, really, really busy, selling things left right and centre, and now that is not the case at all.

“It is very quiet, it is much harder to get listings, and properties are taking much longer to sell.”

But with more requests for appraisals coming in, Whitley expected some recovery in the market during spring and summer.

Falling prices and sales

Drawing on Real Estate Institute data, Kiernan said the number of house sales in the quarter ending June 30 was down 32% compared to the same period the year before, dropping from 22,973 to 15,689.

The average sale value had fallen just over $90,000 between the quarter ending December 31 and June 30, to settle at just over $1 million.

The fall in number of sales and house prices had resulted in the total value of sales falling from over $22.5 billion to $15.7b between the quarter ending June 30, 2021 and June 30, 2022.

The Real Estate Authority issues real estate licences on an annual basis.

Chief executive Belinda Moffat said when the authority was formed in 2009 all existing agents were issued with an annual licence on March 31, and approximately 40% of the licensees still had that renewal date.

Numbers remain high despite cooling market

She said the effect of this bulk renewal date was the industry tended to see a drop in active agents after March 31.

“A licensee who decides to retire or leave the industry is more likely to let their licence lapse on its annual renewal date than actively surrender it,” she said.

“Anyone looking to interpret a short-term shift in licensee numbers over a period which includes March 31 should take care to factor this context into their analysis.”

Moffat said the industry has seen a strong increase in applications during the hot markets of 2020 and 2021.

The authority’s most recent published licensing data shows there were 16,846 active licensees registered with it at the end of July, 20 fewer than in June.

Andrew Harley is also about a year in as a realtor, and said it was inevitable the workforce shrunk as things got tougher.