PHOTO: Australia has one major thing going for it, and one major challenge facing its economy, a demographer has said. Image: Getty
Australia’s comparatively young population will support the country through its post-coronavirus recovery, provided it can ride out a hit to the property market, a leading demographer has predicted.
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American commentator and demographer Harry Dent says that Australia’s younger-skewed demographic profile bodes well for the future, supported by strong Asian immigration.
But the country’s highly leveraged housing market still poses a risk to economic recovery.
“The biggest challenge for Australia is going to be the real estate bubble burst, and the impact on household net worth, and the impact on the banks, who have 75 per cent exposure to this,” he said.
“Australia is going to continue to get whacked by their exposure to commodities, exports, and when this real estate bubble takes another hit – I tell people in Australia, the 2017, 2018 mini crash was the appetiser. You are going to see home prices down 30 per cent to 50 per cent in Australia,” he told Yahoo Finance ahead of a live webinar on Wednesday.
The demographer has made similar predictions in recent years during visits to Australia, fellow experts and commentators Peter Switzer, Terry Ryder and Michael Yardney have all observed.
Dent, who chiefly uses demographic trends to forecast economic movements and market trends, named Australia along with New Zealand, Israel, Sweden and Norway as one of the five smaller developed countries with strong demographic trends.
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