{"id":23220,"date":"2020-01-20T14:18:51","date_gmt":"2020-01-20T01:18:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/?p=23220"},"modified":"2020-01-20T14:18:56","modified_gmt":"2020-01-20T01:18:56","slug":"australian-house-prices-keep-rising-but-former-rba-boss-ian-macfarlane-cant-see-a-crash-coming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/australian-house-prices-keep-rising-but-former-rba-boss-ian-macfarlane-cant-see-a-crash-coming\/","title":{"rendered":"Australian house prices keep rising, but former RBA boss Ian Macfarlane can&#8217;t see a crash coming"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>PHOTO: Australian house prices have more than trebled since the late-1990s. ABC News: Alistair Kroie <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap wp-block-paragraph\">Hindsight is 20\/20, so they say, but some big calls do seem to stand the test of time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of those is the Reserve Bank&#8217;s decision to start raising interest rates in May 2002, having cut them only five months previously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In his statement explaining that rate cut, then-RBA governor Ian Macfarlane had expected the global downturn following the dotcom bust to worsen and Australia to feel the fallout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;The dampening impact on other parts of the economy of global events will become increasingly clear during 2002, at a time when the housing upswing will begin to moderate,&#8221; he had predicted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But that didn&#8217;t happen. In fact, the US economy posted strong growth in early 2002 and the rest of the world was being dragged along with it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Moreover, the moderation in house prices that Mr Macfarlane forecast didn&#8217;t eventuate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By May 2002, Mr Macfarlane seemed to be following the famous adage generally attributed to economist John Maynard Keynes, &#8220;when the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;The strong rises in house prices seen over recent years have also been associated with a rapid expansion in household debt, a process that carries longer-term risks if households become seriously over-extended,&#8221; he wrote then, justifying the rapid about-face on rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;To persist with a strongly expansionary policy setting would risk amplifying inflation pressures and, over time, could fuel other imbalances such as the current overheating in the housing market, potentially jeopardising the economy&#8217;s continued expansion.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">READ MORE VIA <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2020-01-20\/bigger-house-price-fall-would-have-been-better-ian-macfarlane\/11876758\">ABC<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PHOTO: Australian house prices have more than trebled since the<span class=\"more-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/australian-house-prices-keep-rising-but-former-rba-boss-ian-macfarlane-cant-see-a-crash-coming\/\">Read More &rarr;<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":23221,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[461747081],"tags":[478100564,478102165,478100563,478101367,478098535,478098616,478098609],"class_list":["entry","author-data123nz","post-23220","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-australian-property-real-estate-news","tag-australian-house-prices","tag-house-price-collapse","tag-house-price-crash","tag-house-price-falls","tag-house-prices","tag-property-prices","tag-rba"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Australian 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