{"id":34514,"date":"2021-09-11T19:03:55","date_gmt":"2021-09-11T07:03:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/?p=34514"},"modified":"2021-09-11T19:03:55","modified_gmt":"2021-09-11T07:03:55","slug":"top-10-things-to-watch-in-the-australian-property-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/top-10-things-to-watch-in-the-australian-property-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Top 10 things to watch in the Australian property market"},"content":{"rendered":"

PHOTO: Propertyology Head of Research Simon Pressley<\/strong><\/p>\n

Over the past 18-months, the lives of 25.7 million Australians have been tipped upside down.<\/p>\n

We have a new \u2018normal.\u2019<\/p>\n

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One thing that is not normal is the current high rates of house price growth being experienced in locations all over Australia.<\/p>\n

All things being equal, I think we will look back upon this crazy period with the history books showing that some locations produced a 30 to 50 per cent increase in house prices over a three-year growth cycle.<\/p>\n

Plenty of other locations are likely to produce 70 to 100 per cent growth across a cycle that could easily run for five years or more.<\/p>\n

Propertyology has always advocated that the biggest influence on property market performance will always be the economic conditions of each individual city along with localised housing supply volumes.<\/p>\n

At a macro (national) level, the biggest influences on future real estate performance will be the actions of a few key people in high places.<\/p>\n

While it is impossible to get inside the heads of these people, Propertyology believes the 10 most influential macro factors for property markets over the next five-years will be as follows:<\/p>\n

1.\u00a0Rental supply<\/strong><\/h3>\n

While Sydney and Melbourne have a significant surplus of rental accommodation (43,607 dwellings advertised vacancies as at the end of July 2021), the 15 million people who live in the rest of Australia only had a (combined) 17,706 dwellings available.<\/p>\n

There are countless stories of businesses all over Australia advertising jobs but unable to attract candidates because there is no accommodation available.<\/p>\n

Annual rents have already increased by thousands of dollars in more than 40 Australian cities. The problem will get significantly worse before it gets better.<\/p>\n

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2.\u00a0Lockdown legacy<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Our two biggest cities continue to have the most concerning property market fundamentals in all of Australia.<\/p>\n

With every lockdown my fears for their future economic health increases. Melbourne has already been locked up for more than 200 of the past 500 days.<\/p>\n

Hospitality businesses and CBD retailers can only survive on a drip for so long.<\/p>\n

For the owners, employees and commercial landlords of each of these businesses, the ability to pay mortgages and rents is in serious jeopardy.<\/p>\n

It may take a while longer for everyone to properly understand the economic and property market legacy of frequent lockdowns.<\/p>\n

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3.\u00a0Regional relocation<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Sir Isaac Newton\u2019s law of motion states that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.<\/p>\n

There has never been a better real estate case study for Newton\u2019s theory than the emotional and financial reaction to big-city lockdowns.<\/p>\n

Over the past 18-months, Propertyology has observed an insatiable appetite for open space, natural environments, and work-from-home flexibilities.<\/p>\n

The regional relocation trend will continue to gain pace.<\/p>\n

Over the first 12-months of COVID-19, regional Australia had a net population increase of 44,000 from internal migration (and 145,284 over the last five years) while Sydney and Melbourne each had a population decline of 32,000.<\/p>\n

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4.\u00a0Government debt strategies<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The financial statements of each of Australia\u2019s state governments will be tested significantly over the next five to 10 years. State economies and property markets will be affected.<\/p>\n

READ MORE VIA ELITE AGENT<\/a><\/p>\n

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