{"id":35587,"date":"2021-11-15T08:53:04","date_gmt":"2021-11-14T19:53:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/?p=35587"},"modified":"2021-11-15T08:53:04","modified_gmt":"2021-11-14T19:53:04","slug":"why-a-huge-surge-in-us-inflation-could-cause-australian-house-prices-to-drop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/why-a-huge-surge-in-us-inflation-could-cause-australian-house-prices-to-drop\/","title":{"rendered":"Why a huge surge in US inflation could cause Australian house prices to drop"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>PHOTO: Australian property market<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/?s=Australian+property+market&amp;submit=Search\">Australian property market<\/a> has for many years defied the laws of gravity. But is that all about to change?<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">Analysts are warning a huge surge in US inflation has potential to derail the Australian property market.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">The US central bank is expected to respond by raising interest rates sharply and analysts say that will flow through to higher Australian mortgage rates.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">The property market is influenced by more than just interest rates, but the fear is that the increase in fixed rates, combined with tighter macro prudential regulation, will knock the wind out of the market. Let&#8217;s explore this further.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"_3HiYf _2K_6X _1cBaI _2b-O4 _2yZBa _3I3Xh _2uBSR _10YQT _1lh6E\" data-component=\"Heading\">Has the inflation genie escaped the bottle?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">When inflation begins rising, economists often express concerns about the &#8220;inflation genie&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">What they mean by that is\u00a0that once inflation \u2014 the general rise in the level of prices for a basket of goods throughout the economy \u2014 starts increasing, it&#8217;s hard to keep a lid on it.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"_2X-83 g1U-R v-gc3 _299hJ\" data-component=\"RelatedCard\" data-uri=\"coremedia:\/\/article\/100257008\">\n<div class=\"RCbfz dA4xg _2q0YW\">\n<h3 class=\"_157vS wYJvU _1o1Da _1cBaI _18377 _2yZBa _3I3Xh _2uBSR _10YQT _1lh6E\" data-component=\"Heading\">Interest rate hikes will be much sooner than expected<\/h3>\n<div class=\"_2w1Dd\">\n<div class=\"_3C2ok\" data-component=\"IntersectionObserver\">\n<div class=\"_3C5J1\" data-component=\"AspectRatioContainer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"_1sqAO WIJbJ _10f2V\" src=\"https:\/\/live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au\/495e0bb140120cc3853ee9d8a351283f?impolicy=wcms_crop_resize&amp;cropH=1927&amp;cropW=3425&amp;xPos=665&amp;yPos=987&amp;width=862&amp;height=485\" alt=\"A bank poster says &quot;lock it in baby&quot; advertising a 1.89pc fixed interest rate.\" data-component=\"Image\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"_3PR0j _3rsys _1cBaI _3VnJp _10YQT\" data-component=\"Typography\"><em><strong>Amidst all the confusion, there is one thing becoming clearer by the day. Interest rates, currently at the lowest level in history, have bottomed. The argument about rate rises now merely is a debate about when.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">Right now pandemic-induced supply chain bottlenecks are pushing up the cost of business, and small businesses are passing those costs onto customers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">The US is leading a global inflation rebound, with American annual consumer prices jumping 6.2 per cent in October.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">However, unlike in Australia, wages are rising too, giving Americans the ability to demand more at the stores\u00a0\u2014 which puts further upwards pressure on prices.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">This suggests the rising inflation we&#8217;re seeing in the US currently will remain, and may even become more intense, in coming months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">In other words, as wages rise, shoppers&#8217; purchasing power increases, and there&#8217;s further upwards pressure on prices at the stores.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"_2XhY1 _2X-83 g1U-R _3V6uS\" role=\"group\" data-print=\"inline-media\" aria-labelledby=\"100617108\" data-component=\"Figure\" data-uri=\"coremedia:\/\/imageproxy\/100617108\">\n<div class=\"_3C2ok\" data-component=\"IntersectionObserver\">\n<div class=\"_3C5J1\" data-component=\"AspectRatioContainer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"_1sqAO WIJbJ\" src=\"https:\/\/live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au\/31da3c521f25cbbcd6906ce35b0e83af?src\" sizes=\"100vw\" alt=\"A line graph showing US inflation measures\" data-component=\"Image\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption id=\"100617108\" class=\"_1WKJ_ _3rsys _1srG4 _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Figure__figcaption\">The US is leading a global inflation rebound.<cite class=\"_3gxdk _3rsys _1srG4 _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Figure__cite\">(<span class=\"_16znc _3rsys _1cBaI _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Byline\"><span class=\"_3rsys _1srG4 _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Text\">AMP Capital<\/span><\/span>)<\/cite><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"_3HiYf _2K_6X _1cBaI _2b-O4 _2yZBa _3I3Xh _2uBSR _10YQT _1lh6E\" data-component=\"Heading\">Inflation puts upward pressure on US interest rates<\/h2>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">The tonic for rising inflation can be higher interest rates.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">Essentially, if you reduce borrowing power\u00a0and make it harder for those with loan repayments, consumers spend less\u2026 theoretically.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">US financial commentator Remy Blaire says the Federal Reserve \u2014 the US equivalent of Australia&#8217;s Reserve Bank \u2014 will start raising interest rates in coming months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">&#8220;They will have to figure out what to do [in terms of raising rates] given the current inflationary environment,&#8221; he says.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">Senior ANZ Research economist Adelaide Timbrell believes a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike is imminent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">&#8220;The clock is ticking, and with how much [inflation] we&#8217;re seeing in the US in particular, it&#8217;s not going to be too long before they&#8217;re going to have to start tightening their policy and raising interest rates,&#8221; she says.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"_3HiYf _2K_6X _1cBaI _2b-O4 _2yZBa _3I3Xh _2uBSR _10YQT _1lh6E\" data-component=\"Heading\">And Australian interest rates will follow<\/h2>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">And this is where Australian borrowers&#8217; ears prick up.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">Higher US interest rates may translate into higher borrowing costs for Australians. That&#8217;s because local banks and financial institutions borrow from US debt markets to finance many of their fixed rate mortgage products. It&#8217;s only one source of finance, but it is an important source.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"_2X-83 g1U-R v-gc3 _299hJ\" data-component=\"RelatedCard\" data-uri=\"coremedia:\/\/article\/100580094\">\n<div class=\"RCbfz dA4xg _2q0YW\">\n<h3 class=\"_157vS wYJvU _1o1Da _1cBaI _18377 _2yZBa _3I3Xh _2uBSR _10YQT _1lh6E\" data-component=\"Heading\">Interest rates on the up?<\/h3>\n<div class=\"_2w1Dd\">\n<div class=\"_3C2ok\" data-component=\"IntersectionObserver\">\n<div class=\"_3C5J1\" data-component=\"AspectRatioContainer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"_1sqAO WIJbJ _10f2V\" src=\"https:\/\/live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au\/10dbdbbb984e425ac1ca2a53319d6b95?impolicy=wcms_crop_resize&amp;cropH=2700&amp;cropW=4800&amp;xPos=0&amp;yPos=2&amp;width=862&amp;height=485\" alt=\"A poster at an NAB branch advertises a 1.89pc two-year fixed rate with a house in the image.\" data-component=\"Image\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"_3PR0j _3rsys _1cBaI _3VnJp _10YQT\" data-component=\"Typography\"><em><strong>There are warnings the cost of borrowing is marching upwards, and much faster than many experts had been forecasting.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">Adelaide Timbrell thinks Australians about to take on fixed rate mortgages will notice higher costs in coming weeks and months, even if the Federal Reserve sits on its hands for months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">That&#8217;s because\u00a0Australian lenders don&#8217;t wait for the Federal Reserve to hike rates \u2014 they may jump the gun.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">&#8220;A fixed rate is not just about how cheap borrowing is now, we also see that banks have to hedge their bets on how that price of borrowing is going to change in the next two or three years,&#8221; Timbrell says.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">&#8220;Most banks are now thinking it&#8217;s going to be more expensive in two or three years, which means we&#8217;re already seeing fixed rates start to go up.&#8221;<\/p>\n<figure class=\"_2XhY1 _2X-83 g1U-R _3V6uS\" role=\"group\" data-print=\"inline-media\" aria-labelledby=\"100617120\" data-component=\"Figure\" data-uri=\"coremedia:\/\/imageproxy\/100617120\">\n<div class=\"_3C2ok\" data-component=\"IntersectionObserver\">\n<div class=\"_3C5J1\" data-component=\"AspectRatioContainer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"_1sqAO WIJbJ\" src=\"https:\/\/live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au\/3d7bfbea55ac0a3193bab790c0d5c8ed?src\" sizes=\"100vw\" alt=\"A line graph showing changes in the big four banks' three-year fixed rates over the past two years\" data-component=\"Image\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption id=\"100617120\" class=\"_1WKJ_ _3rsys _1srG4 _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Figure__figcaption\"><em><strong>We&#8217;re already seeing fixed rates increasing.<cite class=\"_3gxdk _3rsys _1srG4 _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Figure__cite\">(<span class=\"_16znc _3rsys _1cBaI _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Byline\"><span class=\"_3rsys _1srG4 _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Text\">Supplied: Rate City<\/span><\/span>)<\/cite><\/strong><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"_3HiYf _2K_6X _1cBaI _2b-O4 _2yZBa _3I3Xh _2uBSR _10YQT _1lh6E\" data-component=\"Heading\">Borrowers have plenty of wriggle room though, right?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">As we know from the latest data delivered in the big banks&#8217; reporting season, many Australians are typically ahead on their mortgage repayments \u2014 some by up to two years.<\/p>\n<p>READ MORE VIUA <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2021-11-13\/us-inflation-interest-rates-mortgage-australian-property-market\/100615284\">ABC<\/a><\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/CWEn8_FBOMN\/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"widget-title\"><span class=\"accent-typo\">MOST POPULAR<\/span><\/h3>\n<ul class=\"widgets-list-layout no-grav\">\n<li><a class=\"bump-view\" title=\"Real estate agent charged over 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src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.propertynoise.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Bayside-real-estate-agent-Paul-Torok..jpg?fit=800%2C533&amp;ssl=1&amp;resize=40%2C40\" alt=\"Real estate agent pleads guilty to child exploitation\" width=\"40\" height=\"40\" data-pin-nopin=\"true\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.propertynoise.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Bayside-real-estate-agent-Paul-Torok..jpg?fit=800%2C533&amp;ssl=1&amp;resize=40%2C40\" \/><\/a>\n<div class=\"widgets-list-layout-links\"><a class=\"bump-view\" title=\"Real estate agent pleads guilty to child exploitation\" href=\"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/real-estate-agent-pleads-guilty-to-child-exploitation\/\" data-bump-view=\"tp\">Real estate agent pleads guilty to child exploitation<\/a><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PHOTO: Australian property market The Australian property market has for<span class=\"more-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/why-a-huge-surge-in-us-inflation-could-cause-australian-house-prices-to-drop\/\">Read More 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