{"id":36503,"date":"2022-01-17T08:31:51","date_gmt":"2022-01-16T19:31:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/?p=36503"},"modified":"2022-01-17T08:31:51","modified_gmt":"2022-01-16T19:31:51","slug":"peak-peaked-or-peaking-how-to-read-the-current-property-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/peak-peaked-or-peaking-how-to-read-the-current-property-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Peak, peaked or peaking? How to read the current property market"},"content":{"rendered":"

PHOTO: The big question everyone’s asking is when will the market peak?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Last year\u2019s incredible\u00a0house price growth\u00a0drew plenty of media commentary, but there\u2019s one big question many continue to ask: when will the market peak?<\/h3>\n

As CoreLogic\u2019s Research Director,\u00a0Tim Lawless\u00a0explains, at this stage, that peak looks yet to occur, but things are beginning to slow, prompting plenty of speculation as to whether 2022 will be the year we see the start of a market downturn.<\/p>\n

The current state of play<\/h3>\n

In 2021, Australian housing values grew 22.1 per cent, which Mr Lawless described as an \u201cextraordinary rate of growth not seen since the 1980s\u201d.<\/p>\n

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Now, he notes that\u00a0rate of growth\u00a0is slowing in capital city and broad \u2018rest of state\u2019 markets.<\/p>\n

When to call a peak in housing values<\/h3>\n

\u201cTo categorise a market peak across a region, we would generally be looking for a consistent trend in negative monthly movements,\u201d Mr Lawless said.<\/p>\n

\u201cTo date, the quarterly trend remains positive across the major regions, with the only exception being Darwin houses, which is the only capital city housing sector to record a negative quarterly change.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Darwin reading can be more volatile than other cities due to the small size of the market, so it may be too early to call a peak in this market even though the quarterly growth rate has turned negative.\u201d<\/p>\n

Peak vs peak rate of growth<\/h3>\n

\u201cAlthough we can\u2019t see any evidence that specific housing markets have peaked, it is clear that most markets have moved through a peak rate of growth,\u201d Mr Lawless said.<\/p>\n

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\u201cWhat I mean by that is the point at which markets achieved their biggest monthly growth rate. We saw most of the capitals moved through a peak rate of growth around March last year.\u201d<\/p>\n