{"id":37901,"date":"2022-04-07T17:43:51","date_gmt":"2022-04-07T05:43:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/?p=37901"},"modified":"2022-04-07T17:43:51","modified_gmt":"2022-04-07T05:43:51","slug":"when-will-interest-rates-rise-and-how-high-will-they-go","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/when-will-interest-rates-rise-and-how-high-will-they-go\/","title":{"rendered":"When will interest rates rise and how high will they go?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>PHOTO: Most economists expect interest rates to rise at least 1 percentage point over the next year.<cite class=\"qyyOZ _3gxdk _3rsys _1srG4 _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Figure__cite\">(<span class=\"qyyOZ _16znc _3rsys _1cBaI _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Byline\"><span class=\"qyyOZ _3rsys _1srG4 _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Text\">ABC News: Alistair Kroie\/John Gunn<\/span><\/span>)<\/cite><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">It&#8217;s the key question for several million mortgage borrowers: When will the Reserve Bank start raising interest rates and how high will they go?<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">Unfortunately, there&#8217;s no clear answer. It was only months ago that the Reserve Bank was still hinting that rates probably wouldn&#8217;t rise until 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">That&#8217;s long since been blown out of the water, and now it&#8217;s considered a near certainty that rates will rise this year, the only doubt being exactly when.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">This week&#8217;s RBA meeting has offered some further hints, and has caused a lot of experts to bring forward their forecasts for the first rate rise, with a growing consensus forming around June, although some still see August as a more likely lift-off date.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">So, what should you be watching for as a sign the Reserve Bank is about to move, and how high will rates go when it does?<\/p>\n<figure class=\"_2XhY1 _2X-83 g1U-R _3V6uS\" role=\"group\" data-print=\"inline-media\" aria-labelledby=\"100971448\" data-component=\"Figure\" data-uri=\"coremedia:\/\/imageproxy\/100971448\">\n<div class=\"_3C2ok\" data-component=\"IntersectionObserver\">\n<div class=\"_3C5J1\" data-component=\"AspectRatioContainer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"_1sqAO WIJbJ\" src=\"https:\/\/live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au\/985321b96c005d34d6919999f7bc032f?impolicy=wcms_crop_resize&amp;cropH=1738&amp;cropW=2607&amp;xPos=0&amp;yPos=0&amp;width=862&amp;height=575\" sizes=\"100vw\" alt=\"A woman with an umbrella open walks past the Reserve Bank of Australia's head office in Martin Place, Sydney.\" data-component=\"Image\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption id=\"100971448\" class=\"qyyOZ _1WKJ_ _3rsys _1srG4 _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Figure__figcaption\"><em><strong>Economists now generally expect the RBA board to start raising rates in June, or by August at the latest.<cite class=\"qyyOZ _3gxdk _3rsys _1srG4 _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Figure__cite\">(<span class=\"qyyOZ _16znc _3rsys _1cBaI _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Byline\"><span class=\"qyyOZ _3rsys _1srG4 _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Text\">ABC News: John Gunn<\/span><\/span>)<\/cite><\/strong><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"qyyOZ _4HANS _3HiYf _2K_6X _1cBaI _2b-O4 _2yZBa _3I3Xh _2uBSR _10YQT _1lh6E\" data-component=\"Heading\">What changed this week?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">Before the\u00a0RBA meeting on Tuesday, the bank had repeatedly said in its public statements that it was &#8220;prepared to be patient&#8221; before lifting its official interest rates.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">That phrase was conspicuously absent this week.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"_2X-83 g1U-R v-gc3 _299hJ\" data-component=\"RelatedCard\" data-uri=\"coremedia:\/\/article\/100971460\">\n<div class=\"_2KACU\" data-component=\"CardBox\">\n<h3 class=\"qyyOZ _4HANS _3aSHP a-wQQ wYJvU _1o1Da _1cBaI _18377 _2yZBa _3I3Xh _2uBSR _10YQT _1lh6E\" data-component=\"CardHeading\"><span class=\"_3UTrd\" data-component=\"KeyboardFocus\">Home owners bracing for mortgage shock<\/span><\/h3>\n<div class=\"_2H7Su qnzwC _27r0Q _2HZ_3\" data-component=\"CardLayout\">\n<div class=\"_2wWGp\">\n<p class=\"qyyOZ _3PR0j _3rsys _1cBaI _3VnJp _10YQT\" data-component=\"Typography\">The Reserve Bank leaves the official cash rate on hold near zero, but borrowers are already bracing for what life may look like with higher mortgage interest rates.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"_2OpmR yywxI _1VPVF _3ZMsX\">\n<div class=\"_3C2ok\" data-component=\"IntersectionObserver\">\n<div class=\"_3C5J1\" data-component=\"AspectRatioContainer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"_1sqAO WIJbJ\" src=\"https:\/\/live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au\/0a63f719bc632304907e2b7228ae234f?impolicy=wcms_crop_resize&amp;cropH=466&amp;cropW=828&amp;xPos=0&amp;yPos=27&amp;width=862&amp;height=485\" alt=\"A man and a woman smiling with a newborn baby\" data-component=\"Image\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">&#8220;Before the decision to abandon &#8216;patience&#8217;, Westpac had expected the initial rate hike in the cycle to come in August,&#8221;\u00a0said long-time Westpac chief economist Bill Evans, whose rate calls are widely watched.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"_2X-83 g1U-R _1VIKT\" data-component=\"Pullquote\">\n<blockquote class=\"_2Bzft\">\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\"><em><strong>&#8220;Now we expect a much shorter tightening cycle with consecutive rate hikes in June (15 basis points); July (25bp); and August (25bps).<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"entry-featured-img-wrap\"><a class=\"entry-featured-img-link\" href=\"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/profile-your-business-for-12-months-in-2019\/\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"attachment-hoot-medium-thumb  entry-content-featured-img entry-grid-featured-img wp-post-image ls-is-cached lazyloaded\" src=\"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Yvonne-Bradley-460x270.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"460\" height=\"270\" data-src=\"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Yvonne-Bradley-460x270.jpg\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-grid-content\">\n<header class=\"entry-header\">\n<h2 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/profile-your-business-for-12-months-in-2019\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Profile your business (for 12 months) \u2013 ONLY $499 INCL GST<\/a><\/h2>\n<\/header>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">&#8220;That point would see the 2020 COVID emergency cuts unwound with the board likely to take a pause in September.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">&#8220;Further hikes are now expected in October (25bps) and November (25bps) reaching 1.25 per cent\u00a0by year&#8217;s end.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">Others such as Deutsche Bank, TD Securities and ANZ shifted their forecasts forward by between two and\u00a0three months earlier this week and now also expect a June rate rise.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">&#8220;A May rate hike should not be ruled out, however. A surge in core inflation in the first quarter\u00a0CPI could leave the RBA thinking it has little choice but to move,&#8221; ANZ&#8217;s David Plank added.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"_2X-83 g1U-R _1VIKT\" data-component=\"Pullquote\">\n<blockquote class=\"_2Bzft\">\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\"><em><strong>&#8220;The timing of the May federal election is a complication. One option is for the RBA to make the case for a rate hike in its May statement and then deliver it in June.&#8221;<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/aside>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">A few other prominent forecasters, such as the Commonwealth Bank, AMP Capital\u00a0and Capital Economics, had already been tipping rate rises to start in June.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">In summary, many economists and most traders on the financial markets expect a rate rise in June, while those that don&#8217;t generally expect the first rate hike to happen by August.<\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-featured-img-wrap\"><a class=\"entry-featured-img-link\" href=\"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/the-first-episode-of-melissa-caddicks-underbelly-has-been-slammed-watch\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"attachment-hoot-medium-thumb  entry-content-featured-img entry-grid-featured-img wp-post-image lazyloaded\" src=\"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Melissa-Caddick-460x270.jpg\" alt=\"Melissa Caddick\" width=\"460\" height=\"270\" data-src=\"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Melissa-Caddick-460x270.jpg\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-grid-content\">\n<header class=\"entry-header\">\n<h2 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/the-first-episode-of-melissa-caddicks-underbelly-has-been-slammed-watch\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">The first episode of Melissa Caddick\u2019s Underbelly has been slammed | WATCH<\/a><\/h2>\n<\/header>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"qyyOZ _4HANS _3HiYf _2K_6X _1cBaI _2b-O4 _2yZBa _3I3Xh _2uBSR _10YQT _1lh6E\" data-component=\"Heading\">What are the rate rise triggers to watch?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">The first one comes later this month, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first three months of the year from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">This inflation figure, released on April 27, shows how much prices have been rising in the capital cities for the things households\u00a0spend most of their money on, like rent, groceries, clothes, fuel, energy, transport\u00a0etc.<\/p>\n<p>READ MORE VIA <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2022-04-06\/when-will-interest-rates-rise-and-how-high-will-they-go\/100969122\">ABC<\/a><\/p>\n<section id=\"wpp-4\" class=\"widget popular-posts\">\n<h3 class=\"widget-title\"><span class=\"accent-typo\">MOST POPULAR IN NEW ZEALAND<\/span><\/h3>\n<ul class=\"wpp-list wpp-list-with-thumbnails\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/melissa-caddicks-parents-and-husband-face-being-homeless-australia\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wpp-thumbnail wpp_featured wpp_cached_thumb lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/sp-ao.shortpixel.ai\/client\/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img,w_75,h_75\/https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/wordpress-popular-posts\/84709-featured-75x75.jpg\" alt=\"Craddick\" width=\"75\" height=\"75\" 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owned by Auckland politicians<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/star-real-estate-agent-i-work-12-hour-days-seven-days-a-week-watch\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wpp-thumbnail wpp_featured wpp_cached_thumb lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/sp-ao.shortpixel.ai\/client\/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img,w_75,h_75\/https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/wordpress-popular-posts\/92742-featured-75x75.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/sp-ao.shortpixel.ai\/client\/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img\/https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/wordpress-popular-posts\/92742-featured-75x75.jpg, https:\/\/sp-ao.shortpixel.ai\/client\/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img\/https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/wordpress-popular-posts\/92742-featured-75x75@1.5x.jpg 1.5x, 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agent \u2013 \u2018I work 12 hour days, seven days a week | WATCH<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/property-market-downturn-sets-in-corelogic-nz\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wpp-thumbnail wpp_featured wpp_cached_thumb lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/sp-ao.shortpixel.ai\/client\/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img,w_75,h_75\/https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/wordpress-popular-posts\/92795-featured-75x75.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/sp-ao.shortpixel.ai\/client\/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img\/https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/wordpress-popular-posts\/92795-featured-75x75.jpg, https:\/\/sp-ao.shortpixel.ai\/client\/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img\/https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/wordpress-popular-posts\/92795-featured-75x75@1.5x.jpg 1.5x, 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NZ<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/sales-numbers-down-by-a-third-barfoot-thompson\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wpp-thumbnail wpp_featured wpp_cached_thumb lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/sp-ao.shortpixel.ai\/client\/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img,w_75,h_75\/https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/wordpress-popular-posts\/92807-featured-75x75.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/sp-ao.shortpixel.ai\/client\/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img\/https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/wordpress-popular-posts\/92807-featured-75x75.jpg, https:\/\/sp-ao.shortpixel.ai\/client\/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img\/https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/wordpress-popular-posts\/92807-featured-75x75@1.5x.jpg 1.5x, https:\/\/sp-ao.shortpixel.ai\/client\/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img\/https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/wordpress-popular-posts\/92807-featured-75x75@2x.jpg 2x, https:\/\/sp-ao.shortpixel.ai\/client\/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img\/https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/wordpress-popular-posts\/92807-featured-75x75@2.5x.jpg 2.5x, https:\/\/sp-ao.shortpixel.ai\/client\/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img\/https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/wordpress-popular-posts\/92807-featured-75x75@3x.jpg 3x\" alt=\"Peter Thompson\" width=\"75\" height=\"75\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 75px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 75\/75;\" \/><\/a><a class=\"wpp-post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/sales-numbers-down-by-a-third-barfoot-thompson\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener\">Sales numbers down by a third | Barfoot &amp; Thompson<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/section>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PHOTO: Most economists expect interest rates to rise at least<span class=\"more-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/when-will-interest-rates-rise-and-how-high-will-they-go\/\">Read More &rarr;<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":37902,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[461747081],"tags":[478098512,478098521,478103437,478120641,478098519,478098535,478120640,478098756,478100558,478098513,478098579,478098510,478098514,478098609,478098511,478098509,478099375],"class_list":["entry","author-data123nz","post-37901","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-australian-property-real-estate-news","tag-australia","tag-australians","tag-consumer-price-index","tag-cpi","tag-home-ownership","tag-house-prices","tag-interest-rates-rise","tag-mortgage-rates","tag-official-interest-rates","tag-property","tag-property-market","tag-property-news","tag-propertynoise","tag-rba","tag-real-estate","tag-real-estate-news","tag-the-reserve-bank"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is 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