{"id":38002,"date":"2022-04-11T14:46:56","date_gmt":"2022-04-11T02:46:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/?p=38002"},"modified":"2022-04-11T14:46:56","modified_gmt":"2022-04-11T02:46:56","slug":"borrowers-should-brace-for-a-15-per-cent-fall-in-home-prices-as-interest-rates-rise-warns-rba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/borrowers-should-brace-for-a-15-per-cent-fall-in-home-prices-as-interest-rates-rise-warns-rba\/","title":{"rendered":"Borrowers should brace for a 15 per cent fall in home prices as interest rates rise, warns RBA"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>PHOTO: The Reserve Bank has released its twice-yearly Financial Stability Review.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">The Reserve Bank is warning of\u00a0serious risks for those who are heavily indebted with limited savings buffers, while\u00a0painting a generally upbeat picture of the resilience of Australian households as interest rates rise.<\/p>\n<div class=\"_2X-83 g1U-R v-gc3\">\n<section class=\"_1uHEE _2Mryn\" role=\"contentinfo\" aria-label=\"key points\" data-component=\"KeyPoints\" data-uri=\"coremedia:\/\/teaser\/100977380\">\n<h2 class=\"qyyOZ _4HANS wYJvU _1o1Da _1cBaI _18377 _2yZBa _3I3Xh _2uBSR _10YQT _1lh6E\" data-component=\"Heading\">Key points:<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"_1PvbE\" role=\"list\" data-component=\"List\">\n<li class=\"\" data-component=\"ListItem\">Reserve Bank\u00a0modelling estimates housing prices may fall 15 per cent if interest rates rise 2 percentage points<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-component=\"ListItem\">The RBA says the vast majority of borrowers will be able to manage rising repayments as rates increase<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-component=\"ListItem\">The bank warns a greater proportion of renters than home owners are vulnerable to financial stress<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/section>\n<div id=\"article-key-points-after\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">The bank&#8217;s twice-yearly Financial Stability Review (FSR)\u00a0reported\u00a0that, on the whole, Australian mortgage borrowers are in a much better position to deal with rising interest rates than they were before the pandemic.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">&#8220;Most indebted households have benefited from strong growth in housing prices over the past year and, coupled with higher mortgage repayments in excess of scheduled requirements, the vast majority have accumulated substantial additional equity in their homes,&#8221; the report noted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">The RBA estimated\u00a0that only around 5 per cent of loans now have an outstanding loan-to-value ratio (LVR) greater than 75 per cent, compared to almost a quarter at the beginning of 2020.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">This means that for 95 per cent of borrowers, it would take more than a 25 per cent drop in home prices to send them into negative equity, the dangerous position where the borrower owes more to the bank than their home is worth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">&#8220;The share of loans in negative equity is also estimated to be exceptionally low, at less than 0.25 of a per cent, down from 2.25 per cent in January 2020,&#8221; the review added.<\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-featured-img-wrap\"><a class=\"entry-featured-img-link\" href=\"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/sexy-real-estate-agents-fun-instagram-page-sexy-agents\/\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"attachment-hoot-medium-thumb  entry-content-featured-img entry-grid-featured-img wp-post-image lazyloaded\" src=\"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/T-Shirt-Design-460x270.jpg\" alt=\"SEXY AGENTS\" width=\"460\" height=\"270\" data-src=\"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/T-Shirt-Design-460x270.jpg\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-grid-content\">\n<header class=\"entry-header\">\n<h2 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/sexy-real-estate-agents-fun-instagram-page-sexy-agents\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Sexy real estate agents \u2013 FUN Instagram Page | sexy.agents<\/a><\/h2>\n<\/header>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"qyyOZ _4HANS _3HiYf _2K_6X _1cBaI _2b-O4 _2yZBa _3I3Xh _2uBSR _10YQT _1lh6E\" data-component=\"Heading\">House price falls forecast<\/h2>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">The improvement in both of these metrics has been mainly driven by the exceptional surge in housing values during the pandemic, with property prices surging by almost a quarter over the past year in the steepest growth seen since the late-1980s.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">However, the RBA also warned that much of that gain is likely to be unwound over the next couple of years as interest rates rise.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">&#8220;Estimates using a model of the housing market that takes into account historical relationships between interest rates and both demand and supply factors suggest that a 200-basis-point increase in interest rates from current levels would lower real housing prices by around 15 per cent over a two-year period,&#8221; the FSR noted.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<aside class=\"_2X-83 g1U-R _1VIKT\" data-component=\"Pullquote\">\n<blockquote class=\"_2Bzft\">\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\"><em><strong>&#8220;It is important that lenders and borrowers consider the potential for falls in housing prices, particularly for loans at high LVRs.&#8221;<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/aside>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">While would-be home buyer Manar would welcome the drop in prices, she is cautious about how rising rates could affect her repayments.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<figure class=\"_2XhY1 _2X-83 g1U-R v-gc3\" role=\"group\" data-print=\"inline-media\" aria-labelledby=\"100978420\" data-component=\"Figure\" data-uri=\"coremedia:\/\/image\/100978420\">\n<div class=\"_3C2ok\" data-component=\"IntersectionObserver\">\n<div class=\"_3C5J1\" data-component=\"AspectRatioContainer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"_1sqAO WIJbJ\" src=\"https:\/\/live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au\/3c127e2d777f5d1fa49b3491b55cda4f?impolicy=wcms_crop_resize&amp;cropH=1080&amp;cropW=1080&amp;xPos=0&amp;yPos=0&amp;width=862&amp;height=862\" sizes=\"100vw\" alt=\"Woman smiles at the camera\" data-component=\"Image\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption id=\"100978420\" class=\"qyyOZ _1WKJ_ _3rsys _1srG4 _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Figure__figcaption\"><em><strong>Manar is trying to buy her first home in Sydney.<cite class=\"qyyOZ _3gxdk _3rsys _1srG4 _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Figure__cite\">(<span class=\"qyyOZ _16znc _3rsys _1cBaI _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Byline\"><span class=\"qyyOZ _3rsys _1srG4 _3PhF6 _10YQT _2Cu8q\" data-component=\"Text\">Supplied: Manar<\/span><\/span>)<\/cite><\/strong><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\">&#8220;I think it&#8217;s really important that you are factoring that calculation into your plans,&#8221; she told the ABC&#8217;s PM program.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<aside class=\"_2X-83 g1U-R _1VIKT\" data-component=\"Pullquote\">\n<blockquote class=\"_2Bzft\">\n<p class=\"_1HzXw\"><em><strong>&#8220;Not going too close to the end of the budget. You want to leave some fat there for those increases, because they are significant when you calculate them.&#8221;<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/aside>\n<p>READ MORE VIA <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2022-04-08\/reserve-bank-financial-stability-review-april-2022\/100976246\">ABC<\/a><\/p>\n<section id=\"wpp-4\" class=\"widget popular-posts\">\n<h3 class=\"widget-title\"><span class=\"accent-typo\">MOST POPULAR<\/span><\/h3>\n<ul class=\"wpp-list wpp-list-with-thumbnails\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/melissa-caddicks-parents-and-husband-face-being-homeless-australia\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wpp-thumbnail wpp_featured wpp_cached_thumb lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/sp-ao.shortpixel.ai\/client\/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img,w_75,h_75\/https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/wordpress-popular-posts\/84709-featured-75x75.jpg\" alt=\"Craddick\" width=\"75\" height=\"75\" 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rel=\"noopener\">\u2018Less than $20 million won\u2019t cut it\u2019: The high-flying life of a Luxe Listings Sydney real estate agent<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/star-real-estate-agent-i-work-12-hour-days-seven-days-a-week-watch\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wpp-thumbnail wpp_featured wpp_cached_thumb lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/sp-ao.shortpixel.ai\/client\/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img,w_75,h_75\/https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/wordpress-popular-posts\/92742-featured-75x75.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/sp-ao.shortpixel.ai\/client\/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img\/https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/wordpress-popular-posts\/92742-featured-75x75.jpg, https:\/\/sp-ao.shortpixel.ai\/client\/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img\/https:\/\/www.propertynoise.co.nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/wordpress-popular-posts\/92742-featured-75x75@1.5x.jpg 1.5x, 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agent \u2013 \u2018I work 12 hour days, seven days a week | WATCH<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PHOTO: The Reserve Bank has released its twice-yearly Financial Stability<span class=\"more-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/borrowers-should-brace-for-a-15-per-cent-fall-in-home-prices-as-interest-rates-rise-warns-rba\/\">Read More &rarr;<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15598,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[461747081],"tags":[478098512,478098521,478104569,478098519,478101367,478120717,478098535,478120640,478099484,478098873,478098579,478098510,478098514,478098609,478098511,478098509],"class_list":["entry","author-data123nz","post-38002","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-australian-property-real-estate-news","tag-australia","tag-australians","tag-financial-stability-review","tag-home-ownership","tag-house-price-falls","tag-house-price-falls-forecast","tag-house-prices","tag-interest-rates-rise","tag-lvrs","tag-property-investment","tag-property-market","tag-property-news","tag-propertynoise","tag-rba","tag-real-estate","tag-real-estate-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with 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