{"id":39418,"date":"2022-07-06T11:38:25","date_gmt":"2022-07-05T23:38:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/?p=39418"},"modified":"2022-07-06T11:38:25","modified_gmt":"2022-07-05T23:38:25","slug":"house-price-tailspin-backflip-on-the-cards-as-recession-risk-intensifies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/propertynoise.co.nz\/au\/house-price-tailspin-backflip-on-the-cards-as-recession-risk-intensifies\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018HOUSE PRICE TAILSPIN\u2019: Backflip on the cards as recession risk intensifies"},"content":{"rendered":"

PHOTO: Australian recession<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yesterday\u2019s cash rate hike was a big blow to many Aussies, with fears further rises could steer Australia towards a new recession.<\/p>\n

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On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sent a dagger through the hearts of Australian mortgage holders, hiking the official cash rate (OCR) another 0.5 per cent \u2013 the third consecutive monthly increase.<\/p>\n

\"Mortgage<\/a><\/div>\n
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Horror graph shows how interest rates are tipped to rise EIGHT more times within a year<\/a><\/h2>\n<\/header>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The decision sent the OCR to 1.35 per cent, up sharply from April\u2019s all-time low 0.1 per cent.<\/p>\n

In a matter of days, Australia\u2019s variable mortgage holders will feel the impact.<\/p>\n

As illustrated in the next chart, the average discount variable mortgage rate will rise to 4.7 per cent, up from 3.45 per cent in April. Fixed mortgage rates have already risen sharply, with the average 3-year fixed rate climbing to 5.7 per cent in June \u2013 way above the pandemic low of 2.1 per cent.<\/p>\n

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\"This<\/div>\n

This graph shows averaged fixed compared to variable mortgage rates.<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n

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\"The<\/div>\n

The graph illustrates the dollar impact on mortgage holders from the RBA\u2019s three consecutive rate hikes.<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n

Average monthly mortgage repayments have soared by 16 per cent from their April pre-tightening level.<\/p>\n

For a household with a $500,000 mortgage, this represents a monthly increase in repayments of $362, whereas a household with a $1,000,000 mortgage will pay an extra $724 a month.<\/p>\n

\"Langford<\/a><\/div>\n
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\u2018TOTALLY DEVASTATED\u2019: All staff fired as building company collapses<\/a><\/h2>\n<\/header>\n<\/div>\n

The mortgage nightmare has just begun<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

The Australian Financial Review\u2019s<\/i>\u00a0latest survey of 31 economists revealed a median forecast for the OCR of 2.35 per cent by December and a peak of 2.85 per cent by mid next year.<\/p>\n

If true, Australia\u2019s OCR would rise another 1.5 per cent from its current level under the economists\u2019 median projection.<\/p>\n

The futures market remains even more bullish, tipping an OCR of 3.0 per cent by December and 3.5 per cent by June 2023.<\/p>\n

\"Naturopath\"<\/a><\/div>\n
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From a $10MILLION mansion and successful weight-loss business to grimy prison cell<\/a><\/h2>\n<\/header>\n<\/div>\n

If either interest rate forecasts come to fruition, it would see Australian mortgage rates soar.<\/p>\n

Australia\u2019s average discount variable mortgage rate would climb to 6.2 per cent under the economists\u2019 forecast (dashed red line below) and to 6.9 per cent under the market\u2019s forecast (solid red line below).<\/p>\n

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\"Average<\/div>\n

Average mortgage rates would rise 6.2 per cent under the economists\u2019 forecast and 6.9 per cent under the market\u2019s forecast.<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n

This would send average monthly mortgage repayments soaring by 37 per cent (economists\u2019 forecast) or 48 per cent (futures market\u2019s forecast) versus their level in April before the RBA commenced its rate tightening cycle.<\/p>\n

In dollar terms, a household with a $500,000 mortgage would see their monthly repayments rise by $831 (economists\u2019 forecast) or $1062 (futures market\u2019s forecast), whereas a household with a $1 million mortgage would see monthly repayments soar by $1662 or $2123.<\/p>\n

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\"This<\/div>\n

This graph shows how mortgage repayments would climb in dollar terms under the different forecasts.<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n

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Australian house prices could crash<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

The RBA risks sending house prices into a tailspin if it hikes rates as aggressively as economists let alone the market are forecasting.<\/p>\n

Given Australian house prices soared around 35 per cent over the pandemic on the back of deep cuts to mortgage rates, heavy price falls would necessarily arise from the sharpest lift in mortgage repayments in the nation\u2019s history. Interest rates are a double-edged sword.<\/p>\n

In its latest Financial Stability Review, the RBA estimated \u201cthat a 200-basis-point increase in interest rates from current levels would lower real housing prices by around 15 per cent over a two-year period\u201d.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the economists\u2019 forecast 2.85 per cent OCR suggests a peak-to-trough fall in real Australian house prices of around than 20 per cent.<\/p>\n

The futures market\u2019s forecast 3.5 per cent OCR would drive real housing prices down by around 25 per cent in real terms under the RBA\u2019s modelling.<\/p>\n

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The RBA risks driving Australia into recession<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Never before has the RBA commenced a rate tightening cycle with consumer confidence in such a poor state. The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index has confidence tracking at its lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic in April 2020.<\/p>\n

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\"This<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

This graph displays Australian consumer confidence.<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n

In fact, outside of the pandemic, consumer confidence is tracking at its lowest level since the early 1990s recession.<\/p>\n

Household consumption is the engine room of the Australian economy, accounting for 55 per cent of final demand in a typical quarter. So, where household consumption goes the economy usually follows, as illustrated in the next chart.<\/p>\n

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\"The<\/div>\n

The economy is likely to be impacted by household consumption.<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n

READ MORE VIA NEWS.COM.AU<\/a><\/p>\n

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