PHOTO: SUPPLIED Economist Cameron Bagrie.
OPINION: The housing market is very vulnerable.
When 40 per cent of new mortgage lending has been written at a debt to income level greater than five, the household debt-to-income ratio for those with a mortgage is 3.2, and house prices are seven times income, falls in income and rising unemployment is a major concern.
THIS IS NOT YOUR USUAL DOWNTURN
People remember the Asian crisis and global financial crisis (GFC) recessions, where house prices fell, but rocketed back strongly as lower interest rates worked their magic. They were V-shaped cycles. Unemployment rose, but not to double-digit levels.
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This downturn is deeper. It will take a long time for life to get back to normal and on many levels, life will change. We need to keep Covid-19 out. Migration is not going to be the economic driver it once was. Tourism revenue has disappeared. Attitudes to saving versus spending will change. Government borrowing will need to be repaid, meaning higher taxes. Interest rates are already basically zero.
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