PHOTO:THE-DOMINION-POST It’s hard to imagine anything but low turnover with winter coming and a general election right at the start of spring.
OPINION: Each month I run a survey of the real estate agents on my subscription list, asking them what they are seeing in terms of buyer and seller behaviour.
Obviously at the moment things are in a state of considerable flux. Most of us expect house prices will fall, but transaction numbers are low so it is hard to know what is happening.
The results of this month’s survey, which will be released tomorrow, do not yet give much credence to any theory that prices will fall substantially – except maybe in Queenstown, but even there the picture is mixed.
Buyers are certainly looking for lower prices. But they are acutely aware of the fact that properties have been in very short supply in recent years. Vendors know this, and that is a key factor explaining why so far, price movement downward has been very limited.
It is not just the traditional fact that time has to pass before vendors are forced into meeting the market. Most do not have to sell, so they are withdrawing their listings.
This means that although for the moment turnover is constrained by the lockdown and property visits being limited to two a day, once we enter Level 2, turnover is likely to stay low once delayed settlements are completed.
Tony Alexander is an independent economist and speaker.
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