PHOTO:MARION VAN DIJK/STUFF – Janine Starks
OPINION: In any crisis there’s always an incoming tide of crystal ball rubbers.
Financial experts produce research, opinions and forecasts on anything that moves. Those of us who have worked in the markets have learned the skill of gathering that all up and forming a “view”.
Some experts are specialists in one asset type or one company. Others are generalists spitting out an opinion on the direction of dollars, euro, sterling and five-year interest rates quicker than you can make a cup of tea.
The one lesson you learn from calling the markets is this. You’ll get it right and wrong so many times, you’ve no idea if your “skill” in this dark art actually exists.
It pays not to keep a tally, to preserve your ego.
Behind every prediction are factors and scenarios where the author believes the exact opposite could occur. They are not paid to sit on the fence and have to make a call on it.
Getting it wrong doesn’t mean they weren’t fully aware there was a strong opposing view.
Here are some common financial fallacies which crop up in every crisis
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