PHOTO:KEVIN STENT/STUFF There are a lot of conflicting views over what will happen with New Zealand house prices.
If you own a house, or are thinking of trying to get into the market, you’ve probably been watching forecasts of house price falls with a wary eye.
While some warn of falls of as much as 15 per cent over the year ahead, other economists have said any movement should be small.
If you’re trying to pick the right time to buy, sell – or just worried about the value of your assets, it can be hard to know what to expect.
Stuff asked some of the country’s leading economists what they predicted. Bad news for those hoping for clarity – there are a lot of conflicting views.
Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said he expected house prices to fall 7 per cent between March 2020 and December 2020.
“According to the REINZ House Price Index (seasonally adjusted), prices had already fallen 1.2 per cent by May.”
ASB
At ASB, economist Mike Jones said he expected house prices to keep falling at a national level through to the middle of 2021. From the peak of the market to the bottom, the fall would be about 6 per cent, he said.
“Our sense is that this is at the less pessimistic end of the spectrum, with many shops calling for double-digit declines. We remain happy to occupy this less negative ground.”
But he said it was too soon to say that the property market had started to recover.
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