“It could happen tomorrow.” | Tens of thousands of people could die (WATCH)

Experts have brought into focus the potential devastation awaiting Aotearoa in the event of a massive earthquake and tsunami stemming from the Hikurangi subduction zone, our largest fault line.

The projections are grim: tens of thousands could lose their lives, hundreds of thousands might be forced from their homes, and the estimated cost of structural damage could surpass $100 billion.

Leading minds in science have convened at Te Papa to delve into the latest findings on disaster risk, resilience, and recovery science. This gathering, organized by the government-funded National Science Challenges initiative, particularly the Resilience to Nature Challenge, serves as a platform for crucial discussions.

Otago Daily Times

During a session dedicated to catastrophic risk, the National Emergency Management Agency (Nema) outlined its intensive efforts over the past 18 months. They have been using a scenario planning approach, focusing on a hypothetical 9.1 magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunami originating from the Hikurangi fault.

Sarah Holland, NEMA’s chief advisor to the chief executive, emphasized the stark reality that such catastrophic events are not a matter of “if” but “when,” possibly occurring within our lifetimes or those of our children.

The potential consequences are daunting: rapid and widespread destruction, with minimal time for evacuation. If such an event were to occur, casualties could reach staggering numbers, with tens of thousands perishing and hundreds of thousands more displaced or injured. The toll on infrastructure, particularly housing, would be immense, with damage estimates soaring into the billions.

Despite the enormity of the challenge, Nema is actively preparing for the worst-case scenario, collaborating with numerous organizations to develop comprehensive response strategies. This includes the creation of a “catastrophic handbook” to guide emergency response efforts, covering aspects such as mass casualty management, provision of essential supplies, and restoration of critical infrastructure.

Recognizing the need for international support in the aftermath of such a catastrophe, Nema is also planning for coordinated assistance and resource distribution.

While the magnitude of the potential disaster is sobering, it serves as a crucial impetus for change and heightened preparedness. Both Nema officials and scientific experts stress the importance of acknowledging and addressing these risks, urging greater investment in disaster planning and mitigation efforts.

However, challenges loom on the horizon, including dwindling funding for scientific research and the impending conclusion of 10-year funding cycles for initiatives like the National Science Challenges. Maintaining momentum in disaster preparedness requires sustained resources and collaboration across various disciplines and sectors.

As recent inquiries have highlighted the gaps in readiness and response capabilities, there is a pressing need for increased support and funding for agencies like Nema to fulfill their critical roles in safeguarding communities against the looming threat of natural disasters.