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After months of uncertainty, the property market is showing early signs of a comeback—and homeowners could be in for a big win!
According to the latest CoreLogic NZ Pain & Gain report for Q4 2024, a whopping 91% of properties are now being resold for more than their original purchase price. That’s a jump from 90.1% in Q3—suggesting the tide may finally be turning.
Profits Are Back—But Not at Peak Levels Yet
CoreLogic’s Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson says this uptick is a positive signal, aligning with broader trends hinting at a property market revival.
“While profits aren’t what they were at the peak, most sellers are still making money, and the latest data supports the idea that the market may have hit rock bottom,” Davidson explains.
What’s fueling the shift? Falling mortgage rates have played a key role, making homeownership more accessible and boosting seller confidence.
However, Davidson warns: “Property values are still around 18% below their peak, and with plenty of homes still on the market, buyers remain in the driver’s seat.”
Sellers Are Gaining Ground—Slowly
For now, buyers have the upper hand, but sellers aren’t losing out either.
The median resale gain jumped to $289,500 in Q4, up from $279,000 in the previous quarter. While this is a far cry from the late 2021 peak of $440,000, it’s still higher than anything seen before late 2020.
On the downside, resale losses held steady at $55,000, sticking within the $50,000–$60,000 range of the past two years.
The Key to Profitable Sales? Time!
Davidson points out that the length of ownership plays a huge role in determining whether a sale is profitable.
“Even in a downturn, those who’ve owned their property for several years are still walking away with gains,” he says.
Case in point? In Q4, sellers who made a gross profit had held onto their properties for a median of nine years, up from 8.6 years in Q3.
This cautious approach suggests that many homeowners are waiting for the right moment to sell, rather than rushing into an uncertain market.
Apartments Still Risky—But Losses Are Shrinking
Apartments have been hit hardest in recent years, but there’s good news for unit owners—losses are finally starting to shrink.
In Q4, 29.5% of apartment resales recorded a loss, down from 31.8% in Q3. Meanwhile, standalone houses fared much better, with only 8.3% selling at a loss—a slight improvement from 9.1% in the previous quarter.
What’s Next? A Slow but Steady Comeback
So, is this the start of a full-blown property boom? Not quite.
Davidson predicts lower mortgage rates will push prices up over time, which could further improve profits for sellers.
But don’t expect an overnight surge. Lingering economic uncertainty, a soft labour market, and a flood of listings mean that buyers will still have plenty of options—and plenty of negotiating power.
For now, sellers can breathe a little easier knowing the market might finally be turning in their favour.