QV House Price Index: National average house price drops below $1 million

The average national house price in New Zealand has dropped to below $1 million for the first time since September last year.

The latest QV House Price index for the three months ending in July shows the national average price of a home is now $989,790, dropping by 4.9 percent in the quarter.

The average house price in Auckland, Tauranga and Queenstown Lakes District remains above $1 million, but the City of Sails saw the average house price drop to $1,410,163, down 5.5 percent in the quarter.

Queenstown Lakes District bucked the trend and saw modest growth of 0.2 percent.

Wellington was harder hit with a drop of 11 percent to $960,004, down by $130,000 over the quarter.

QV Operations Manager Paul McCorry said the reduction in annual growth across the country was “staggering.”

“The almost 30 percent national growth we were reporting at the turn of the year is now down to just 4 percent, and that is only half the story.

“Locations such as Wellington, Palmerston North and Dunedin, which saw such meteoric increases in mid to late 2021, have had those capital gains wiped out and are now into negative growth over 12 months – the first time in a decade this has happened in Dunedin.”

McCorry said while the numbers were “jaw-dropping,” it was no surprise the regions that had seen the highest rises were now seeing the biggest falls.

“One of the few exceptions is Christchurch, which had seen almost 40 percent annual growth by the later months of 2021, but is now only seeing relatively moderate declines of 3.4 percent for the quarter,” McCorry said.

The QV report cited higher interest rates, credit constraints and rising inflation were all putting pressure on house prices.

The Official Cash Rate has risen from 0.75 percent at the start of the year to 2.5 percent in July’s latest adjustment. The variable floating rate for a mortgage in New Zealand now sits around 6.34 percent and many borrowers who were on a lower fixed rate are feeling the pinch as they re-fix their mortgages.

“How we track nationally over the next three months will largely depend on the Reserve Bank announcement on the OCR later this month. We’ve seen four successive 50 basis point increases since February and little sign of an arrest in the rate of inflation – any further increases will only fan the flames of this correction further,” McCorry said.

Auckland QV valuer Hugh Robinson said buyers in the city were being more cautious and FOMO had long gone from the market.

“What we’re seeing is a continued slowdown of the market in Auckland. Buyers are being more cautious, doing more research, checking things out and comparing properties to each other.

“There are now more properties on the market advertised with actual asking prices, which is a sign that vendors are recognising the fact that the market has turned in favour of buyers.”

 

Regional breakdown

Auckland

Auckland home values have dropped by an average of 7.7 percent across the first seven months of 2022 – including 5.5 percent in the most recent quarter.

It marks the fifth month in a row of increasingly negative home value growth, with all districts once again posting a loss this quarter.

The average home value across the wider Auckland region is now $1,410,163 – just 4.3 percent higher than the same time last year.

Northland

Residential property values have declined by an average of 4.8 percent this quarter in Northland.

Tauranga

Home values have dropped by an average of 4.9 percent in Tauranga this quarter – the same rate of reduction as the national average.

Waikato

The downturn continues to gather pace across the Waikato region, with the average home value in Hamilton now $858,401, which is 6.8 percent lower, or $144,717 less in dollar terms, than at the start of this calendar year.

Rotorua

The average home value has declined by 4.8 percent this quarter in Rotorua to $707,122.

Taranaki

Home values have dipped by an average of 2.7 percent in Taranaki this quarter, with the region’s rolling three-month rate of reduction increasing from 0.6 percent. .

Hawke’s Bay

Home values continue to trend downward across the Hawke’s Bay region, as they do throughout much of the country.

The latest QV figures show negative home value growth of 7.4 percent and 6.5 percent over the last six month period in Napier and Hastings respectively, with the average home value in these twin cities also sitting at $834,305 and $868,055 respectively.

Palmerston North

The average home value in Palmerston North looks likely to dip below the $700,000 mark in the coming weeks.

Values have fallen by an average of 8.7 percent throughout the first seven months of this year, including 4.3 percent in the July quarter, with the average home value now sitting at $702,066. That figure is now 4.3 percent lower than at the same time last year.

Wellington

Wellington’s residential property downturn continues to “snowball”, with home values declining for the sixth straight month.

Home values have declined across the wider region by an average of 12.2 percent over the last six months, with the rate of reduction escalating in recent months – from a drop of 1.6 percent in April, to 2.4 percent in May, 2.8% in June, and now 4 percent in July.

Nelson

The latest QV House Price Index shows the average home value went down by 3.5 percent in the July quarter to $839,432.

West Coast

It was a mixed bag on the West Coast last month, with the latest QV figures showing a 5.8 percent decline in average home value for the quarter, but a slight increase for the month of July.

Canterbury

Just as July was the wettest month on record for Christchurch, economic pressures have had a similarly dampening effect on the city’s housing market.

Following a similar trend from the previous month, the latest QV House Price Index shows a monthly decline in average house values of 1.2 percent for the Garden City during July. This is reflected in a 3.4 percent quarterly decline, up from the 1.7 percent quarterly decline reported last month. The average house value now sits at $774,566, which is still 16.7 percent higher than the same time last year.

Dunedin

The average home value in Dunedin has recorded its first annual loss in more than a decade.

In the 12 months to the end of July 2022, the average Dunedin home value has declined in value by 2.6 percent, following a reduction of 9.1 percent over the first seven months of the year – including a 5.5 percent drop in the most recent quarter. It’s the first average annual loss QV has recorded in the city since September 2011.

Queenstown

Home values continue to hold up better in Queenstown than in most of New Zealand.

The latest QV House Price Index shows the average home increased in value locally by 0.2 percent this quarter to $1,652,464 – a stark contrast to the average 4.9 percent reduction across the country – with the average annual home value growth rate sitting at 15.1 percent.

Invercargill

The residential property downturn appears to be marginally less severe in Invercargill than in much of the rest of the country.

The average home value has declined by 2.7 percent in the three months since the end of April to $482,263, while the national average home value has declined by 4.9 percent at the same time.