PHOTO: National MP Nicola Willis. Photo credit: Newshub / Zane Small
Treasury’s admission that officials use “professional judgement” to predict house prices, rather than a solid economic model, has shocked Green, National and ACT MPs, who are demanding answers.
Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick, who sits on Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee (FEC), has for three weeks now sought a briefing from Treasury officials on how it comes up with advice on house price forecasting.
Swarbrick says it’s important because in 2020, Treasury predicted a house price fall, which informed Government and Reserve Bank decisions that, instead, saw house prices increase an historic 25 percent in one year.
National’s housing spokesperson Nicola Willis, who also sits on the FEC, sought more clarification from Treasury officials when they appeared before the committee a few weeks ago. Swarbrick then requested a briefing from officials on the subject, but it’s been shot down three times by Labour.
Treasury gave FEC members a written response on how officials forecast house prices. It said a team of 11 use their “professional judgement” to “form views” of house prices and economic outlooks, rather than a firm economic model.
“We literally have it on the record there, quite explicitly, that they’re using their ‘professional judgement’ – that isn’t giving us any form of insight into the variables used to predict house price forecasts, which in turn inform Government policy,” Swarbrick told Newshub.
“I guess what was most helpful is that we have real clarity now that we’re not going to get that clarity unless, and until, we have that briefing.
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