PHOTO: ETV BHARAT

If Trump Wins:

A Trump victory could mean a continuation or intensification of “America First” policies, with an emphasis on reducing dependency on global supply chains, placing tariffs on international goods, and incentivizing American businesses to keep operations within the U.S. This approach might ripple through to countries like New Zealand in both direct and indirect ways:

  1. Trade Dynamics and Export Impacts: Trump has historically favored tariffs and trade restrictions, which could complicate New Zealand’s agricultural exports to the U.S. If tariffs are reintroduced or increased, New Zealand exporters—particularly in dairy, meat, and wine—could face higher costs, potentially impacting revenue and creating price adjustments that may flow back to the local economy.
  2. Investment Climate: Trump’s policies have often emphasized U.S. investment, possibly diverting foreign capital away from countries like New Zealand. This shift could affect New Zealand’s commercial property investments, as American investors could prioritize domestic opportunities, leading to a cooling effect on high-end real estate and business ventures that rely on international funds.
  3. Interest Rates and Housing: If Trump’s re-election leads to volatility in global markets due to trade tensions, there may be pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve to adjust interest rates. This could have a domino effect on global interest rates, including in New Zealand, impacting the cost of borrowing. Higher rates could place additional strain on New Zealand homeowners and dampen demand for property investment.
  4. Immigration and Workforce Supply: Trump’s immigration policies are restrictive, and a win could lead to a similar approach. If the U.S. becomes less attractive to skilled immigrants, New Zealand might benefit from an influx of international talent. This boost could aid industries facing shortages, although it might also drive up housing demand as more people enter the country.

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If Harris Wins: Implications for New Zealand’s Housing and Economy

A Harris administration could signify a return to more collaborative international relations and economic policies that are sensitive to climate change and environmental sustainability, which could positively impact New Zealand:

  1. Trade and Export Stability: Harris’s approach would likely focus on stabilizing global trade relationships and possibly engaging in new trade agreements. For New Zealand, this could mean expanded or reinforced access to the U.S. market, positively impacting agricultural and technology exports.
  2. Foreign Investment and Real Estate Demand: A Harris presidency might foster a welcoming investment climate in the U.S. without dissuading international engagement, which could be favorable for New Zealand. Foreign investors may feel more confident in diversifying their investments into markets like New Zealand, leading to increased demand in the housing and commercial property sectors.
  3. Climate Policy Influence: Harris has been vocal about climate change, and her administration would likely prioritize sustainable economic practices. This focus could encourage New Zealand to pursue more eco-friendly housing solutions and policies, which may see growth in sectors like renewable energy, green building, and sustainable agriculture, all positively impacting the local economy and reducing environmental impact.
  4. Exchange Rate and Inflation Impact: With a potential for steady interest rate policies under Harris, the global currency market might stabilize, potentially resulting in a steady or slightly stronger New Zealand dollar. A stable exchange rate could mean more predictable costs for imported building materials, which are crucial for New Zealand’s construction and housing sector.

Overall Impact on New Zealand Housing

Regardless of the election’s outcome, the U.S. economy is a major driver of global economic conditions. In both scenarios, New Zealand’s housing market could feel indirect pressures: Trump’s policies might lead to higher borrowing costs and affect construction expenses, while Harris’s stance could lead to a supportive environment for green housing initiatives and stable interest rates. The New Zealand government may need to remain agile in adjusting local economic policies to adapt to either U.S. administration’s approach, ensuring stability in the housing sector amidst global changes.

In conclusion, each candidate’s potential policies hold unique implications for New Zealand. A Trump win could lead to a more isolated economic approach, impacting trade and investment, while a Harris win could bring stability and promote sustainable growth. Both scenarios require New Zealand to strategically navigate its economic relationship with the U.S., ensuring that local housing and economic interests remain resilient in a dynamic global environment.