PHOTO: Investor lending slid another 4.6% month on month to be 27.8% down year on year.
The accelerated drop in home loans has prompted UBS analysts to downgrade their peak-to-trough forecast of home prices from a fall of 10 per cent to now 14 per cent.
“We cut our peak-to-trough forecast of home prices from falling ‘10% or more if regulators don’t ease’, to dropping ‘14%, even assuming the RBA cuts’ (with Sydney and Melbourne closer to 20%), UBS analysts George Tharenou, Carlos Cacho and Jim Xu said.
“This is double the -7% decline so far.”
They said they expect the RBA to cut rates in November.
The change in forecast comes after home loan approvals and values dropped to GFC levels in December.
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