PHOTO: A property for sale on 3 May in a deserted Eton High Street, Windsor, during lockdown. Savills said it expected the housing market would take time to rebuild. Photograph: Maureen McLean/Rex/Shutterstock
Economists and housing experts are forecasting UK-wide price falls of up to 13%, with “brutal” declines in some areas, as the property market struggles to rebuild during the coronavirus crisis.
The range of forecasts from the major researchers is markedly wider than usual. At one end is the Centre for Economics and Business Research, which predicts that 2020 prices will be down by 13% “as a lack of transactions, high uncertainty and falling incomes take their toll”. But the estate agent Savills said the hit to the market could be more like 5%, and a third of valuation surveyors are predicting that price falls may be limited to 4% or less.
The post-lockdown market will be a buyer’s market, said Jonathan Hopper of Garrington Property Finders, as he forecast falls of 10% nationally and 15% in some areas.
“Areas with a more resilient jobs market should see values hold up better, but elsewhere the price correction could be more brutal,” he said.
Knight Frank, in a revised forecast issued this week, said it anticipated a fall of 7% in 2020, more than its earlier forecast of 3%. Its analysis suggested prices had already fallen 5% since March, with a further downtick to come.
“Our view is that as the market reopens in the next two months, the 5% fall in values we have seen since late March will be revealed in achieved pricing – and while there could be some further downward pressure through to the summer it is likely to be limited,” the agent said.
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