Why house prices could decide Australia’s next federal election

PHOTO: As the PM faces criticism over the vaccine rollout and Australia’s covid situation, it could be an unlikely factor that could decide his future.

Despite what feels like an almost permanent election campaign in modern federal politics, since July 1 the Prime Minister can call an election any time he chooses between now and April next year.

With polling since the start of the year either tied or slightly favouring Labor, it’s set to be a close and very complex election campaign.

But as the Coalition readies itself for its attempt to win government for the fourth consecutive time, there are some trends within our society that would be giving the Liberals and Nationals pause about their long term future.

At the heart of conservative ideology there is one key element that defines that school of thought, past, present and future.

The desire to conserve and protect something positive about our society in the present, so it is preserved for the benefit of future generations down the road. For some conservatives it’s about ensuring the protection of values, community or a way of life.

This leads us to why this key element of conservative ideology is so important, to not only the future of the Australian Liberal Party and the Nationals, but conservative parties throughout much of the Western world.

House prices and the next election

But what if a voter feels like there isn’t much of the current status quo that is actually worth preserving for the future? This is an issue that the Coalition will increasingly be staring down in years to come if budget forecasts are realised.

Wages are predicted to stagnate over the next five years. Source: Supplied

According to forecasts from May’s federal budget, in inflation adjusted terms, wages will go nowhere between July 2021 and June 2025.

At the same time house prices, some experts are expecting housing prices to rise nationally by 25 per cent by 2023 if inflation and interest rates remain low.

When you put it all together it’s hardly the perfect atmosphere to encourage voters to embrace conservatism, when many feel like there is little about the current political status quo that benefits them.

This trend is illustrated strongly in the Australian National University’s election study, which concluded that a record high 75 per cent of respondents believe that people in government look after themselves.