PHOTO: Property bubble
The median property price in Sydney could drop by $146,651 by the end of next year, according to RateCity.com.au analysis of CBA’s new housing market forecasts.
Property prices in Australia’s two biggest capitals, Sydney and Melbourne, are now expected to drop annually by 3 per cent in 2022 and 9 per cent the following year, according to an updated forecast released yesterday from Australia’s biggest bank.
The news follows on from data out from CoreLogic recording Sydney’s first drop in dwelling values in almost a year and a half.
If CBA’s forecasts are realised, the median dwelling price in Sydney could drop by an estimated $146,651 by the end of 2023 to $969,568 – under the $1 million mark.
If house prices follow the same trajectory as the bank’s dwelling forecasts, the median house in Sydney could drop by almost $200,000 in less than two years.
Note: calculations are based on CBA’s annual forecasts using the median property values from CoreLogic as of 31 December 2021, however, the change is calculated from CoreLogic’s current median prices (28 Feb 2022) to end December 2023.
DWELLINGS: price forecasts
| Median dwelling price today (28 Feb) | CBA forecast% annual change | Forecast median dwelling price end 2023 | Change (today -end 2023) | ||
| 2022* | 2023 | ||||
| Sydney | $1,116,219 | -3% | -9% | $969,568 | -$146,651 |
| Melbourne | $799,756 | -3% | -9% | $701,842 | -$97,914 |
| Brisbane | $722,433 | 7% | -7% | $680,203 | -$42,230 |
| Adelaide | $593,883 | 6% | -8% | $555,749 | -$38,134 |
| Perth | $535,335 | 2% | -6% | $506,775 | -$28,560 |
| Hobart | $724,366 | 7% | -8% | $683,431 | -$40,935 |
| Darwin | $495,573 | 2% | -8% | $467,481 | -$28,092 |
| Canberra | $909,379 | 5% | -9% | $854,540 | -$54,839 |
| Australia* | $808,792 | 0% | -8% | $730,165 | -$78,627 |
HOUSES: price forecasts
Based on CBA’s dwelling price projections
| Median house price today (28 Feb) | CBA forecast% annual change | Forecast median dwelling price end 2023 | Change (today – end 2023) | ||
| 2022* | 2023 | ||||
| Sydney | $1,410,128 | -3% | -9% | $1,213,686 | -$196,442 |
| Melbourne | $998,356 | -3% | -9% | $880,871 | -$117,485 |
| Brisbane | $828,175 | 7% | -7% | $779,130 | -$49,045 |
| Adelaide | $648,418 | 6% | -8% | $606,726 | -$41,692 |
| Perth | $559,837 | 2% | -6% | $530,229 | -$29,608 |
| Hobart | $781,069 | 7% | -8% | $735,531 | -$45,538 |
| Darwin | $569,928 | 2% | -8% | $530,271 | -$39,657 |
| Canberra | $1,031,410 | 5% | -9% | $970,692 | -$60,718 |
| Australia* | $913,759 | 0% | -8% | $819,231 | -$94,528 |
Sources: CBA, CoreLogic. Notes: based on property price forecasts for dwellings, applied to house prices from 31 Dec 2021 from CoreLogic, published 4 Jan 2022. Today’s median values are from CoreLogic from 28 Feb 2022, released 1 March 2022. *Australia is combined capital cities.
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